2015 Top Positional Target Report AFC EAST and 2016 Predictions

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2015 Top Positional Target Report AFC EAST and 2016 Predictions

Figure 1. Summary of 2015 League Team Targets vs Usage By Positions (Color Coded League Rankings)

Overall 2015 Target Distributions Slide13

Legend for the Color Coding in Figures 2 to 5

  • Green is the Positions Number 1,
  • Orange is the Position’s Number 2,
  • Yellow is the Position’s number 3 and
  • Blue is the Position’s fourth or greater targeted player.

 

BUF 2015 Target Analysis

The data outline in Figure 1 reveal that was slightly below average in RBs and average in WR and TEs in their targeting. Given this year, I predict the RB move to average and WR move up to slightly above average. TE may regress to below the league average. 2016 (RB 0) (WR+) and (TE-)

Figure 2 BUF 2015 WEEK by WEEK TOP Target Records by Position.

In 2015, the top RB targeted while healthy was LeSean McCoy. BUF uses one main RB. Note with Karlos Williams gone, Mike Gillislee who had 3 weeks on top targeting has evidence that he can be a PPR RB choice! The BUF team also acquired Reggie Bush who could be in the mix for targets as he has that skill set.

The TE Charles Clay was the main TE when healthy and since BUF under uses it TE this is not a strong draft choice.

The WR position was a shared situation. BUF however with Sammy Watkins back late last year dominated the situation. Given the progression, I expect Watkins to move BUF up in the leagues WR targeting!. Do note that Robert Woods had some success and is a deep PPR sleeper.

BUF Slide17

MIA 2015 Target Analysis

Overall as shown in Figure 1, MIA’s RB and TEs were under used in terms of league comparisons. Both positions were below average. MIA made its living targeting its WRs at an above average level!. I project the WR are targeted at the same level and the RBs will be more targeted and approach at least average or more. The TE position will continue to be dragging in the rear and there is little expectation of improvements. 2016 ( RB 0/+ ) (WR +/++) and (TE- – )

Figure 3 MIA 2015 WEEK by WEEK TOP Target Records by Position.

In terms of the Positional top targets, in the RB position, Lamer Miller dominated in 12 of 16 weeks. MIA showed a trend to focus on one top guy. How does that work for them in 2016? The underused TE slot was dominated by Jordan Cameron. That trend should continue. In the WRs, the dominate force was Jarvis Landry and he should continue. Landry can ascend up the ladder this year. He is a strong draft choice. DeVante Parker is predicted to also ascend and will be heavily used.
MIA Slide30

NE 2015 Target Analysis

In Figure 1, NE as predicted was in the top tier of TE targeting. They will continue that into 2016. NE also was very handy with their group of RBs at an above average level of targeting. The fly in the pudding was the uneven WRs. They was at the bottom of the league barrel in targets. They can only go up! Prediction for 2016, (RB +) (TE ++_ and (WR-)

Figure 4 NE 2015 WEEK by WEEK TOP Target Records by Position.

In the top targets races, the RBs traded out players and had a dominate 2 players. Dion Lewis was expected to shine in 2016 targets. However, with Lewis out, James White looms large! PPR Sleeper!

Rob Gronkowski dominated the TE world and will continue as such. Note that Martellus Bennett is the understudy waiting for any opportunity.

If the WR group is to shine it will be led by Julian Edelman, if he is not injured, he can-elevate the NE target game. Again an under- looked Danny Amendola waits as does Chris Hogan the rookie. If NE moves forward in the WR it will be barbecue of no injury and or the rookie shines. I consider Hogan as a “blue sky” pick. Wait late for him and save for a injury storm at NE.
NE Slide32

NYJ 2015 Target Analysis

In 2015 the NJY targets as shown in Figure 1 were biased to the WRs who were targeted at the top level of the league. The RBs were targeted at an average level while the TEs was in the bottom of the league in targets. One can easily predict that the NYJ will continue being dominated by WRs targeting. The team acquired Matt Forte and will target him at a high level. He will be tag-teamed by Bilal Powell who should continue being relevant. The TE position will be the same. 2016 Prediction (RB+), (WR++) and (TE–)

Figure 5 NYJ 2015 WEEK by WEEK TOP Target Records by Position.

The top RB targeted was Powell but Chris Ivory was included. The NYJ wish to use a 2 headed RB group to fully exploit in the targets. Explain Forte to fit into that Ivory role. The TE position was poorly used and was also a 2 headed group. No change expected. Finally the WRs were and will be the Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker Circus, these two will battle for each week for the top targets. Injury would not necessarily elevate other.
NYJ Slide35

 

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Jason Nation
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