The 2018 NFL Quarterback Draft Class or Free Agency Class? To Draft or to Sign?

That is the Question in 2018.

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The Quarterback position is crucial in the NFL. Yet each and every NFL draft proves that value can be overlooked and expected returns are not met. The same can be said for free agency classes. This year’s Quarterback draft class is deep with value yet will produce multiple 1st round draft busts! While the free agency class offers up immediate starters that will be overpaid do to the need and pay set fourth by demand.

In 2017 Desaun Watson lit up NFL defenses and helped DeAndre Hopkins restore his prominence in the Fantasy Football World. Not to mention head coach Bill O’Brian got to breathe again with a  good quarterback running the offense. Watson was drafted 12th overall while Mitchell Trubisky of the Chicago Bears was drafted 2nd overall and Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs was drafted 10th overall. All three quarterbacks are solid starters in my opinion and their future is bright. Desaun Watson is clearly a stud who went after the other two as most analyst supported him not being a top 10 pick.

The 2018 NFL Draft will produce quarterbacks along this line. All with question marks and it’ll take a team to believe in them in order to risk a 1st round draft pick. Which one of these quarterbacks will be the 75th overall pick Russell Wilson?

Top 2018 Quarterback Draft Prospects

–Josh Rosen (UCLA).

–Lamar Jackson (Louisville).

–Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma).

–Sam Darnold (USC).

–Josh Allen (Wyoming).

–Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma State).

–Kyle Lauletta (Richmond).

–Kurt Benkert (Virginia).

–Luke Falk (Washington State).

–Chase Litton (Marshall).

–Mike White (Western Kentucky).

–Nic Shimonek (Texas Tech).

–Tanner Lee (Nebraska).

–Riley Ferguson (Memphis)

–Alex McGough (Florida International).

Recent Quarterback Draft Classes

The 2016 NFL Draft produced studs with Jared Goff going #1 and Carson Wentz going #2 overall. Moon man was big on Wentz and loved his growth opportunity as well. While missing on Paxton Lynch who went 26th overall. Dak Prescott went 135th overall in the 4th round and already has put together two good NFL seasons as the starter in Dallas.

In 2015 Jameis Winston went 1st overall and Marcus Mariota 2nd overall. Seems simple when looking back? The next quarterback drafted was in round 3. With pick number 75, the New Orleans Saints drafted Garrett Grayson. Sean Mannion (89th) , Bryce Petty (103) and Brett Hundley (147th) went thereafter.

The 2014 NFL draft had Blake Bortles taken 3rd overall, Johnny Manziel22nd overall and Teddy Bridgewater 32nd overall. Meanwhile the best quarterback of the draft went in the second round at pick 36? Derek Carris who I am speaking of. Let’s go John Gruden and the Raiders. Moon Man has high expectations for this offense in 2018. Lets not forgetJimmy Garoppolo at pick 62 and AJ McCarron at 164th overall.

In 2013 the Buffalo Bills took the first quarterback off the board with pick 16 (EJ Manuel) and the New York Jets took Geno Smith in round 2 (39). Mike Glennon (73rd), Matt Barkley (98th), Ryan Nassib (110), Tyler Wilson (112), Landry Jones (115), Brad Sorenson (221), B.J. Daniels (237) and Sean Renfree with pick 249. Needless to say, each year brings it’s own value picks and epic failures.

The 2012 NFL Draft class was loaded with Andrew Luck and RG III going 1st and 2nd overall. Ryan Tannehill went 8th overall to Miami and the Browns drafted a bust at QB with Brandon Weeden. Round 2 saw the Broncos select Brock Osweiler while Russell Wilson went in the 3rd round to Seattle. Recent Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles was drafted byAndy Reid 13 picks after Wilson and Kirk Cousins went in round 4 to Washington.

Free Agent Quarterback Outlook

The clear cut free agent for teams to target is Kirk Cousins. Is it because of skill and pocket awareness or due to the lack of proven talent on the market? Moon man would say the ladder. The Washington Redskinsfailed to commit to Cousins and refused to offer him the long term deal he wanted. Franchising tagging him and ultimately trading for veteran qb Alex Smith from Kansas City. This should be a red flag for other owners that Cousins is not a stand alone stud quarterback. Rather a NFL starter based on what is around him on offense. Cousins is not the type of quarterback to overcome weaknesses on offense and a lack of fire power. This puts the Minnesota Vikings as the best fit. The Vikings have a great run game, fire power for Cousins to target and a good offensive line. Match that with a tremendous coaching staff and indoor stadium. Kirk Cousins should sign with the Vikings. They will help cover up his poor decision making at times and lack of pocket awareness.

The Denver Broncos have shown interest and offer much more of the same scenario that Cousins experienced in Washington. The Broncos lack a consistent run game and their offensive line is in the middle of the pack. There is fire power with the receiving targets and a good defense but not nearly the fire power that is in Minnesota and a defense that is on the downhill. Where in Minnesota, the defense is in it’s prime. The Broncos should pursue a quarterback through the draft and bring in Teddy Bridgewater. Maybe Sam Bradford if he humbles himself and signs for a lesser amount of money.

Outside contender Arizona Cardinals offers better weather than Denver for sure and a potent defense itself. With David Johnson coming back and Larry Fitzgerald returning. There is a chance for Cousins to sign here but he should not because he would need to be the man with DJ. Cousins is not the man whether he likes it or not (pun). The Cardinals are better off with A.J. McCarron and allowing him to grow in a new offense while David Johnson is the work horse for the 1st two years.

Money is readily available if Kirk Cousins signs with the New York Jetsand moon man is a fan of Todd Bowles. But does Kirk want to walk into that situation? Oh, Tom Brady is still in that division too. Not a good idea. The New York Jets should sign Case Keenum. Neither Cousins or Keenum are worth what they will get paid. AJ McCarron is worth what he will get paid and has room to grow.

Come April 26th in Arlington, Texas the Cleveland Browns will once again be on the clock with the 1st overall pick. The New York Giants may trade their 2nd pick, the Indianapolis Colts pick 3rd and should trade their pick as well, Browns 4th, Broncos 5th, Jets 6th, Buccaneers 7th, Bears 8th, 49ers 9th and the Oakland Raiders 10th. If no trades occur within the top ten. You can bet you money that the Browns, Broncos and Jets will be in the running to select a quarterback. That would leave multiple quarterbacks to drop and be scooped up by another team. Leading to yet another draft in which the best QB taken. Was not necessarily a Top 10 Draft Pick!

As Always,

(Teams Going Off + Thoughts Flexed In) = Combination Lineups

May the Fantasy Force Be With You.

Follow Moon Man on Twitter @FFPmoonman

 

The Cleveland Browns have notoriously failed when holding the #1 Overall Draft Pick. Check out a couple older articles focusing on the Brown’s draft picks and all the talented players they failed to draft.

https://ffnation.commock-draft-nfl-round-1/

https://ffnation.comthe-quarterback-carousel/

https://ffphilosophy.com