DraftKings NFL Week 9 Positional Breakdown
After two weeks of the chalk plays hitting like crazy, week 8 saw most of the chalk plays completely and totally fall off. This sets up nicely for week 9, as people may be a little more leery to go with chalk, and we could see more evenly spread out ownership. There are also several key teams on bye, which will result in typically highly owned plays sitting, further causing a lack of consensus in how people create lineups.
HIGH OWNERSHIP: Things seems pretty cut and dry at least for me: Aaron Rodgers ($7800) is highly likely to see the highest ownership as his team has absolutely no running game right now. Drew Brees ($7200) is right behind him, but I think a few people will see him being on the road and look elsewhere. This is the Niners we are talking about, so he should be able to pick them apart with relative ease. Matt Ryan ($7100) will be the third high priced option off the board, as he has an excellent matchup against the Buccaneers. This is a Thursday only game, but it is likely that he will see high ownership on that slate. In the same game, I think Jameis Winston ($6100) should see high ownership due to the Swiss cheese defense of the Atlanta Falcons. Dak Prescott ($6100) will also be very highly owned as a result of playing the Cleveland Browns.
LOW OWNERSHIP: Even playing relatively poorly last week, Andrew Luck ($6700) was able to still hit the 20 point mark, and this is a good matchup against the Packers poor secondary if he is able to stay upright. Derek Carr ($6300), despite his huge game last week, will go overlooked because of the opposition, but the Raiders are going to have to continue to throw to stay in the game this week. Cam Newton ($7000) has to see low ownership, and makes one of my top tournament plays this week, as there are just way too many options priced at a similar amount for him to see high ownership. I think he’ll put up a monster game and will have much lower ownership than he should. Another victim of players in the same price range being in good positions, Marcus Mariota ($5900) finds himself in a good spot and could put up another big game. Finally both Ryan Tannehill ($5600) and Colin Kaepernick ($5600) find themselves in good matchups and could very easily end up paying their salaries off.
HOW I’M USING THEM IN CASH GAMES: Rodgers/Ryan/Prescott
HOW I’M USING THEM IN TOURNAMENTS: Newton/Luck/Kaepernick
HIGH OWNERSHIP – I think there is very little doubt that Ezekiel Elliott ($7900) against the Browns will command the highest ownership on the board. With Tevin Coleman on the wrong side of questionable currently, Devonta Freeman ($6700) should see high ownership high for a second straight week. Devontae Booker ($6400) did not really look great last week, but he gets another favorable matchup against the Raiders. Carlos Hyde ($6100) appears set to return from his one week absence and gets a bad Saints defense that he should be able to run all over. Jay Ajayi ($6000) will garner a lot of attention to after two straight back to back outings of 200+ yards, but this isn’t a great matchup. The assumption seems to be that Spencer Ware will miss this week, making Charcandrick West ($4400) a viable play at the running back position. I think Tim Hightower ($4000) will see high ownership as well, despite being in a very obvious time share.
LOW OWNERSHIP – Even though he will see high usage regardless of who is under center, I would expect Le’Veon Bell ($7700) to see lower ownership than he should see. I think this is a great week to buy in on Melvin Gordon ($6300) in tournaments, as he won’t see high ownership in a perceived poor matchup. He’s easily one of my top targets. Todd Gurley ($5800) is now priced as attractively as we could possibly get him, and I will gladly take this discount in tournaments with the touches he is still getting. If somehow DeMarco Murray is unable to play, Derrick Henry ($5000) has a ton of value in all formats, but there doesn’t appear to be anything conclusive that he will miss. Even after a big week last week, Theo Riddick ($4900) could see low ownership because people may still think the Vikings defense is unbeatable. Terrance West ($4700) had a horrible showing before the bye week, which should put people off of him, but he gets a chance to redeem himself against what is looking like a weak Steelers run defense. Finally, reports are that Darren Sproles ($3900) may replace Ryan Matthews as the top back in Philly and at this price certainly deserves a look.
HOW I’M USING THEM IN CASH GAMES: Elliott/Booker/Freeman/Bell/Riddick
HOW I’M USING THEM IN TOURNAMENTS: Gordon/Gurley/Riddick/West/Hyde
HIGH OWNERSHIP – I think it is highly likely that Julio Jones ($9600) and Mike Evans ($8500) will dominate ownership percentages on the Thursday night slate. This could be a shootout, and even though I don’t like playing Thursday night games, I may make an exception here. Antonio Brown ($8900) should be highly owned again, as he is in a good matchup and I think we could actually see one of those dominant “if you don’t have Brown in your lineup, you’re done” performances. With an absence of a running game and a strong game this past weekend, Jordy Nelson ($7800) should continue to see his ownership high. Dez Bryant ($7400) against Cleveland at this price really does seem like it is too good to be true, so expect a high ownership number here. Jarvis Landry ($7100) against a woeful Jets pass defense should be a lock for cash games and I don’t mind it in tournaments either. Ty Montgomery ($5800) shouldn’t take the day off this week, and will be highly owned. Quincy Enunwa ($5100) has been hot, and his price hasn’t caught up with him, so I’d expect him to have high ownership.
LOW OWNERSHIP – Odell Beckham Jr. ($8800) is in a horrible matchup and that will definitely hurt his ownership level considerably. Even after a huge game, I could see the same thing happening for Amari Cooper ($7700) as I think some people might see the Denver defense and run for the fences. T.Y. Hilton ($7600) killed his share of lineups last week and there is little doubt that people will hold that against him. Brandin Cooks ($7500) is much better at home than on the road, but I don’t care, as I think he is going to burn the Niners defense easily this week. Brandon Marshall ($7300) has been relatively quiet lately, and I think he’s due for a breakout. It’s tough to read Terrelle Pryor Sr. ($6100) and his ownership position, but I think it will be lower than it should be. Jordan Matthews ($5700) hasn’t been consistent, but he say high targets that he actually converted last week, and he could be a low owner option that really pays off. Corey Coleman ($4500) could return this week, and this price is way, way too low for him, and he will be low owned. Kenny Britt ($4400) gets a very nice matchup against the weak Carolina secondary, and could end up providing nice upside.
HOW I’M USING THEM IN CASH GAMES: Landry/Jones/Evans/Brown/Enunwa
HOW I’M USING THEM IN TOURNAMENTS: Cooper/Cooks/Hilton/Marshall/Pryor Sr.
HIGH OWNERSHIP – Since there are a lot of attractive options at the high dollar mark at every other position, I could see this being a week that the consensus spends down at the position. I think the first target will be Delanie Walker ($4600) who gets a matchup against the Chargers. He’s priced far too low, and that will force most players into using him, especially in cash games. Kyle Rudolph ($4000) will be the next tight end to play the Detroit Lions that are giving up points left and right to the position. Jack Doyle ($3600) remains one of Andrew Luck’s top targets and will see high ownership. On the Thursday night slate, Cameron Brate (3300) offers a nice cheap option that could see some production.
LOW OWNERSHIP – Greg Olsen ($6200) is coming off a really bad fantasy week, which should shift his ownership downward. The matchup isn’t great, but I’ll gladly take my chances with him this week. Travis Kelce ($5300) finally had a good week last week, and with the running game up in the air, I could see him getting more usage this week. Dennis Pitta ($3800) still hasn’t had a big game yet, but with two ten target games in a row under his belt, I think there is some merit to looking his direction. Coby Fleener ($3400) is very cheap and could find some room to work against the Niners this weekend.
HOW I’M USING THEM IN CASH GAMES: Walker/Pitta/Rudolph
HOW I’M USING THEM IN TOURNAMENTS: Kelce/Rudolph/Fleener
HIGH OWNERSHIP – I’d have to imagine that the Kansas City Chiefs ($3500) will see a high level of ownership taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars. As usually, players will irrationally run out a defense against the Cleveland Browns and get 4-7 points. This week, that honor goes to the Dallas Cowboys ($3400). Just stay away. After a dominating performance last week, the Carolina Panthers ($3400) will likely see their ownership rise.
LOW OWNERSHIP – Because the game is one Monday night, I’d imagine the Seattle Seahawks ($3900) will see low ownership, but I don’t mind them in any format. The Minnesota offensive line isn’t doing them any favors right now, so this could be a sneaky spot to run the Detroit Lions ($2500) defense out at a depressed price. I guess if all else fails, you could run the risk of the Green Bay Packers ($2700) against a bad Indianapolis offensive line.
HOW I’M USING THEM IN CASH GAMES: Chiefs/Panthers/Lions
HOW I’M USING THEM IN TOURNAMENTS: Seahawks/Panthers/Chiefs
I hope you enjoyed this article, and I will be back next week. I hope to see you on the leaderboards!