2015 Top Positional Target Report NFC NORTH and 2016 PREDICTIONS

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2015 Top Positional Target Report NFC NORTH and 2016 PREDICTIONS

Figure 1. Summary of 2015 League Team Targets vs Usage By Positions (Color Coded League Rankings)

Overall 2015 Target Distributions Slide13

Legend for the Color Coding in Figures 2 to 5

  • Green is the Positions Number 1,
  • Orange is the Position’s Number 2,
  • Yellow is the Position’s number 3 and
  • Blue is the Position’s fourth or greater targeted player.

 

CHI 2015 Target Analysis

The Chicago Bears come in average at RB, above average at TE and below average at WR. In 2016 the Bears will have a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White, but no Martellus Bennett, expect the TE targets to drop and the WR targets to increase significantly.  2016 (RB 0) (WR+) and (TE-)

Figure 2 CHI 2015 WEEK by WEEK TOP Target Records by Position.

In 2015, the top RB targeted was Matt Forte who’s now in New York. Langford projects to fill in nicely and could easily acquire 60 targets.

Starting at TE will be 31 year old Zach Miller, he will likely lead the tight ends in receptions this year, but I’m not expecting 80+ targets like Bennett received last year.

The WR position is where I expect Jay Cutler to target early and often. Alson Jeffery should eclipse the 100 target mark and Kevin White could as well.

CHI Slide19

DET 2015 Target Analysis

When you think of a passing team, you are definitely envisioning a team like the Detroit Lions. Last year they were ranked #31 in total rushing attempts. Let’s take a look at how they spread the ball around. RB was ranked the highest, TE the lowest and WR below average. Now with Calvin Johnson gone I’d expect an increase in TE targets and a slight decrease in WR targets. 2016 ( RB 0) (WR -) and (TE + )

Figure 3 DET 2015 WEEK by WEEK TOP Target Records by Position.

Theo Riddick dominated in RB targets with a whopping 99! Jim Bob Cooter’s offense loves to throw short to intermediate routes and the RB’s are prime targets. Riddick will remain the teams primary 3rd down back, but this year I think Abdullah will gain a few of those targets.

Ebron should see an increase this year as well.

No Calvin Johnson means 149 targets open up. Enter WR Marvin Jones, while I don’t think Marvin Jones will reach the 149 mark in targets, I think he’ll get close to 100. Golden Tate should lead the team in targets this year.
DET Slide24

GB 2015 Target Analysis

Green Bay had a disappointing season last year, lets take a look at the numbers. RB lowest, TE below average and WR highest. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers love to throw to the wide outs and that should continue this year with even more targets. 2016 (RB +) (TE 0) and (WR+)

Figure 4 GB 2015 WEEK by WEEK TOP Target Records by Position.

James Starks capitalized on the down year from Eddie Lacy in 2015. This year, I’m expecting Lacy to break out. Starks may be the 3rd down back, but Lacy is going to produce and it’s going to be awfully hard to pull him out on 3rd down. I’ll predict these numbers to flip flop, Lacy 60 targets, Starks 35.

The Packers brought in TE Jared Cook from LA and that might spell trouble for Richard Rodgers and his starting role.

Welcome back Jordy Nelson! Cobb and Nelson will have 100+ targets each this year.
GB Slide25

MIN 2015 Target Analysis

Minnesota’s ranks from last year were RB above average, TE average and WR lowest. Who knows what’s going to happen this year with Teddy out and Bradford in, but I’d predict Diggs and Rudolph improving on the offensive side. 2016 (RB 0), (WR +) and (TE +)

Figure 5 MIN 2015 WEEK by WEEK TOP Target Records by Position.

Peterson when healthy is the best back in the league and should maintain his #1 status on the team this year.

TE is another position that’s been hurt by injuries as Kyle Rudoph always seems to have some sort of injury. He’s the clear cut top TE on the team though so his reign as TE target machine will continue.

Diggs and Wallace lead the team in targets for WR’s last year and are looking to improve those totals this year. The Teddy Bridgewater injury hurts, but Minnesota spent a 1st round pick to bring in Sam Bradford from Philadelphia and are planning to contend for the division again this year. I can see both of these guys gaining 10+ targets in 2016.
MIN Slide31

 

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About the Author

Jason Nation
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