2015 Top Positional Target Report AFC SOUTH and 2016 Predictions

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2015 Top Positional Target Report AFC SOUTH and 2016 Predictions

Figure 1. Summary of 2015 League Team Targets vs Usage By Positions (Color Coded League Rankings)

Overall 2015 Target Distributions Slide13

Legend for the Color Coding in Figures 2 to 5

  • Green is the Positions Number 1,
  • Orange is the Position’s Number 2,
  • Yellow is the Position’s number 3 and
  • Blue is the Position’s fourth or greater targeted player.

HOU 2015 Target Analysis

The HOU team in 2015, was only strong in targeting the WR position. They were in top level of the league in WR targeting. HOU poorly used its TE position as none of its TEs stepped up to meet the 2015 seasonal challenges. The RBs are HOU were just targeted at the league average. Given the addition of Lamar Miller, one can predict that RB targeting will go up. There is not evidence for any TE changes in targeting and WR targeting should remain high. 2016 Season. (RB 0/+), (TE –), and (WR ++)

Figure 2. HOU 2015 WEEK by WEEK TOP Target Records by Position.

Deeper looking into the 2015 targeting top players reveals that after Arian Foster was injured, HOU used multiple RBs. Given the presence of Miller, I expect him to be the top player and only in the event of injury might HOU go to a platoon of RBs to target. I would place Alfred Blue on that watch list only.

The HOU team used 3 TEs and in 2016 any HOU will be on my watch list only.

The HOU WRs are a strength and DeAndre Hopkins will be the dominate WR they target. I would expect the WR2 to have some play but not at the highest levels of WR2s. Note they have several new faces that could surprise. (Braxton Miller and Jaelen Strong)

HOU Slide26

IND 2015 Target Analysis

In 2015, the IND team targeted its WRs the most of the other positions and with a healthy Andrew Luck that can improve. They under-used the RB and used their TE at a the league average level. I expect no changes in the RB and TEs but think they can move the WRs to he top. 2016 Prediction (RB-), (TE 0), and (WR++)

Figure 3. IND 2015 WEEK by WEEK TOP Target Records by Position.

Deeper analysis of the top targeting data shows that Frank Gore was the main guy in the RB targets. That is not Gore’s strong suit and hence my thinking that IND does not move forward. IND’s TE hopes in 2016 will be with Dwayne Allen. He was only the top target in 2 weeks of 16, Coby Fleener has left for better chances at New Orleans. IND’s game is its WRs and with Luck coming back, I expect increased activity in WR targets. In 2015 T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief shared the spotlight as the top targeted players in 15 of 16 weeks together. They split the 15 weeks with Hilton getting 8 and Moncrief getting 7. Expect the intense nature of the IND WRs to elevate.

IND Slide27

 

JAX 2015 Target Analysis

In Figure 1, analysis of the 2015 overall targeting data for the JAX team, enlighten me as to how the team worked. JAX looked like IND as they also were strong on WRs, weak on RB targeting and just at he league average using their TEs. I predict a similar targeting usage in 2016. 2016 prediction (RB-), (TE 0) and (WR +).

Figure 4. JAX 2015 WEEK by WEEK TOP Target Records by Position.

The looking at top targeting report below, I see that JAX is a one RB targeting team. Chris Ivory could fight T. J. Yeldon each week for targets but I think its going to be a RB by committee (50/50). In the TE targeting Julius Thomas when healthy was domiante in the top targeting. I expect that trend to continue. The WRs are the highly of this team. JAX tends to be biased to Allen Robinson (13/16 weeks of top targets) but Allen Hurns was top in 3 weeks of 16 weeks. This should continue.
JAX Slide28

 

TEN 2015 Target Analysis

The last team TEN in this divsion, was a team that was a one trick pony. Delaine Walker was a relevalation as a TE and is a strong candidate to repeat as this team’s main target magnet. They failed to use the RBs and WR well. The addition of Demarco Murray to the is predicted to move that position up. TEN also drafted Derrick Henry that adds to the RB strength. TEN used a platoon of 3 WRs as top targets and not real change is in store. 2016 Prediction (RB+), (TE +), and (WR-)

Figure 5. TEN 2015 WEEK by WEEK TOP Target Records by Position.

Given the addition of Murray and Henry, the 2 or 3 other RBs are just backup. TEN did use 2 RBs more later in the season. I predict that Henry comes on late and since TEN did that last year, expect it again. Draft Henry late but draft him! The TE position was Walker’s show and that should continue. The WR corps can be expected to cobble together a below average usage in targets.
TEN Slide44

 

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About the Author

Jason Nation
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